The View From 1776

Liberal-Progressives’ Wishful ‘Thinking’

Obama’s cherished green technology simply isn’t selling too well, even with ideological compulsion by the EPA.

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 09/25 at 04:18 PM
  1. Thomas,

    I take it that in your mind, the alternative to an alternative energy future for the world is continued total and increasing reliance on fossil fuels.

    I take you believe oil resources are infinite.

    I take it you do not believe that the planet is warming and that the polar ice caps are melting.

    I take it you do not believe that sea levels are rising.

    I take it that you do not believe the drought in the south west and the increasing violence of hurricanes are related to climate change.

    I take it that you believe the world population can increase without end with no deleterious effects to the environment. (Did you know that there will be 220,000 more people at the dinner table tonight than last night?)

    How lovely is thy dwelling place!

    How do you manage to get the sand out of your ears when you take your head out of the sand?
    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)  on  09/26  at  08:52 AM
  2. Oil is fine.
    Coal is fine; we've had excellent "scrubber" tech for nearly 50 years.
    No, there is no evidence that human use of coal, oil, and natural gas is causing the globe to heat up, nor is there evidence that the polar ice caps are melting any more than the usual long-term cycles within cycles suggest has been normal for at least a few million years.
    Nor have we seen evidence that sea levels have been rising or falling beyond normal natural cycles.
    Hurricanes and tornadoes and rain-fall have not been unusual worldwide.
    Forest fires and grass fires have been hotter and more widespread in areas where the federal government and environmental whackoes have prohibited long-standing grooming practices (including grass and brush removal and periodical controlled burning).
    Yes, solar and geothermal and hydro-electric power and "recycling" are also fine where they are economical in a free market (if we only had free markets) without artificial taxes and subsidies.

    Yes, IMO, the world and the USA are over-populated and over-crowded, but I recognize that some people feeeeel more comfortable in crowded living conditions that would make me run screaming. There are some people (most of whom have always lived in cities) who seem to think that forest and farm-land and ranch-land is "wasted" or "undeveloped", and fail to recognize that the farming and mining that take place there are necessary to the existence of the cities and the supply of fresh water and food to them. One effect of this over-crowding and over-population has been the high levels of OTC and prescription drugs in ground water, the thorough spread of pathological micro-organisms and parasites in ground-water because people are crammed too close together for natural systems to curtail their spread from one host to another.

    Mass transit and "intelligent transportation" as currently being promoted are evil schemes to reduce liberty and privacy (as are "driver licensing", ObummerDoesn'tCare, the Socialist Insecurity Abomination, Medicare, Medicaid, income extortion, and most professional and business licensing, for that matter).

    I also think it is amusing that Obummer keeps blathering about "green jobs" and dumping loads of cash on his political buddies for the alleged purpose of developing them, seems to favor Muslims over Jewish and Christian people, and that green is Mohammed's color.
    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)  on  09/26  at  01:50 PM
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    Posted by thesis proposal  on  09/29  at  05:53 AM
  4. J. Jay,

    You sure do an awful lot of ‘taking’ (typical liberal with his hand out). Do you ever think of doing a little giving (as in compromise or just yielding to reality)? As JGO points out, there is no substance to the things you say about fossil fuels. To that, I would add there is nothing to most of the things you say of Thomas by putting words and ideas in his mouth he never uttered. But, this is not what I want to address just now, and will leave off pinning your ears to another post.

    What I want to address is the same idea the two articles Tom linked to his post address, that hybrids and electric vehicles are not cost competitive, that they have been grossly underpriced and subsidized to make them appear competitive. To this end, I put together a couple of tables showing the lifetime cost of various car types using specific cars as basis. I used cars that are as much alike as I could find and information sources that are uncontestable to the degree possible. What I found is that, not only are plug-in hybrids (PHEV) like the Volt and all-electrics (EV) like the Leaf uncompetitive without artificial price supports, they are still uncompetitive with them. Makers, of course, are trying not to shave any more off the price than they have to, but they do this mainly by hiding lifetime operating and maintenance costs. As it is and given the weak sales, it is clear they won’t be able to keep it up without another massive infusion of tax or fiat dollars.

    I put together a couple of neat tables comparing PHEVs and EVs against the lifetime cost of conventional vehicles (CVs), but could not get my tables to post, so I am just going to have to describe them to you.

    The tables are the same except the first compares without including government (i.e., taxpayer) subsidies and manufacturer write-offs that have been deliberately hidden from consumers to make it seem they are more competitive than they really are and, of course, to boost sales. The second table includes the subsidies and write-offs to give a more realistic idea of lifetime costs. I chose a particular car to represent each of the 4 car categories, and chose them as comparable as I could make them (class, size, features, &c), except for those characteristics meant for comparison (mpg, range, carrying capacity, LT cost), &c. The cars I chose are as follows: CV = 2012 Chevy Cruze, PHEV = 2012 Chevy Volt, EV = Nissan Leaf, and Used CV = 2008 Chevy Cobalt. This last car bears a little clarification as a used car has fewer remaining miles than a comparable new car. I would have preferred a 2008 Cruze, but I could not find a good used Cruze I felt was reasonably comparable; and the 2008 Cobalt was just a much better fit. Below you will find my data and labels in a format that can be readily converted to tables. You can reproduce the tables by cutting & pasting the above into MS Word, then converting. You will have to resize columns to make it more readable. What they show is that, even with price supports, EVs and PHEVs are only marginally cost-comparable but not competitive even when optimized for best city versus highway driving. They appeal mainly to snobby liberals and their sob-sisters convinced the rest of us are idiots because we refuse to help them ‘save the world’ by driving around in the same road-kill sardine cans they do. Without the price supports, only wealthy limousine-liberals could buy them, but (as we well know) would not be seen dead in one these contraptions they think perfectly okay for us rest of us.

    Table 1 - Lifetime Cost Comparison of Conventional v PHEV Compacts with Price Supports
    ; CV; hybrid; all-electric; used CV; Comments
    ; 2012 Chevy Cruze; 2012 Chevy Volt; 2012 Nissan Leaf; 2008 Chevy Cobalt /Cruze; CV = conventional (gasoline powered) vehicle
    Engine size & cylinder count; 1.8L-4cyl; 1.4L-4cyl; NA; 1.8L-4cyl;
    Mpg rating (city/hwy); 25/36; 95/93; 106/92; 23/34;
    % city driving; 20%; 20%; 20%; 20%; Arguable PHEV drivers more likely to be city dwellers, but finding a recharging station in cities difficult or costly; but even at 80% PHEVs barely break even and EVs never do.
    Average mpg; 33.8; 93.4; 94.8; 33.0;
    Miles per year driven; 18,500; 18,500; 18,500; 18,500;
    Expected life (miles); 145,000; 145,000; 200,000; 71,000;
    Actual cost of mfg.; ; $60K-$75K; ?; ; GM vague as to value of loans, subsidies and write-offs per car produced
    MSRP; $16,800; $39,145; $35,200; $6,904;
    Dealer & state fees (typ.); $1,000; $1,000; $1,000; $1,000;
    Trade-in value of comparable conventional hatchback @ 74,000 mi; ($4,000); ($20,255); ($19,887); ($4,000);
    Battery life (miles); ; 100,000; 100,000; ;
    replacement battery cost (includes disposal of old battery); $0; $8,000; $31,753; $0; according to one report, expected life of batteries can be significantly lower than advertised depending mainly on heat and recharging patterns
    Lifetime fuel cost; $16,516; $5,977; $8,122; $8,295; Gasoline or equivalent; see Wiki comb. Fuel note
    Recharging cost ($/mi); $0.000; $0.038; $0.035; $0.000;
    Recharging cost; $0; NA; $7,000; $0; (see note)
    Combined energy cost; $16,516; $5,977; $8,122; $8,295; (see Wikipedia comb. fuel note);
    values adjusted for hybrid and driving patterns
    Maintenance ($/mi); $0.03; $0.03; $0.01; $0.04;
    Maintenance cost; $4,350; $4,350; $2,000; $2,485; routine maintenance + major repairs (other than EV batteries) averaged over car life
    Lifetime car cost; $34,666; $38,217; $58,188; $14,684;
    LT car ($/mi); $23.91; $26.36; $29.09; $20.68;
    LT versus CV; 100%; 110%; 122%; 87%;

    Table 2 - Lifetime Cost Comparison of Conventional v PHEV Compacts without Price Supports
    ; CV; hybrid; all-electric; used CV; Comments
    ; 2012 Chevy Cruze; 2012 Chevy Volt; 2012 Nissan Leaf; 2008 Chevy Cobalt /Cruze; CV = conventional (gasoline powered) vehicle
    Engine size & cylinder cnt; 1.8L-4cyl; 1.4L-4cyl; NA; 1.8L-4cyl;
    Mpg rating (city/hwy); 25/36; 95/93; 106/92; 23/34;
    % city driving; 20%; 20%; 20%; 20%; arguable PHEV drivers more likely to be city dwellers, but finding a recharging station in cities difficult or costly; but even at 100% neither PHEVs or EVs break even
    Mpg rating (avg); 33.8; 93.4; 94.8; 33.0;
    Miles per year driven; 18,500; 18,500; 18,500; 18,500;
    Expected life (miles); 145,000; 145,000; 200,000; 71,000;
    Actual cost of mfg.; ; $60K-$75K ; ; ; GM vague as to value of loans, subsidies and write-offs per car produced
    MSRP; $16,800; $60,000; $56,055; $6,904; I used the low production cost of Volt as basis. Could not find a production cost for Leaf, so used difference of volt production cost and MSRP. Others argue real cost per car is well over $1million, but that figure is hotly disputed. I would also challenge trade-in values as not enough in used market to say they will retain this much; but left it in anyway.
    Dealer & state fees (typ.); $1,000; $1,000; $1,000; $1,000;
    Trade-in value of comparable conventional hatchback w/ 74,000; ($4,000); ($20,255); ($19,887); ($4,000);
    Battery life (miles); ; 100,000; 100,000; ; okay if warrantied
    replacement battery cost (incl. disposal old battery);$0 ;$8,000 ;$31,753 ;$0 ;according to one report, expected life of these batteries can be significantly lower than advertised depending mainly on heat and recharging patterns
    Lifetime fuel cost; $16,516; $5,977; $8,122; $8,295; gasoline or equivalent; see Wiki comb. Fuel note
    Recharging cost ($/mi); $0.000; $0.038; $0.035;$0.000;
    Recharging cost; $0; NA; $7,000; $0; (see note)
    Comb. energy cost; $16,516; $5,977; $8,122; $8,295; (see Wikipedia comb. fuel note);
    values adjusted for hybrid and driving patterns
    Maintenance ($/mi); $0.03; $0.03; $0.01; $0.04;
    Maintenance cost; $4,350; $4,350; $2,000; $2,485; routine maintenance + major repairs (other than EV batteries) averaged over car life
    Lifetime car cost; $34,666; $59,072; $79,043; $14,684;
    LT car ($/mi); $23.91; $40.74; $39.52; $20.68;
    LT versus CV; 100%; 170%; 165%; 87%; certified used gas-guzzlers are best deal


    Notes & links

    http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2012/09/24/gm-offers-big-discounts-to-boost-volt-sales/

    Nissan lifetime battery costs - http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/136894-will-high-mileage-nissan-leafs-need-costly-battery-replacements-soon

    http://www.buzzle.com/articles/car-life-expectancy.html

    Comb. fuel+charge cost included in charging factor - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf#Operating_costs
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Volt#Operating_cost_and_payback_period

    Used car cost & trade-in - http://www.edmunds.com/chevrolet/cobalt/2008/tmv-appraise-results.html

    http://www.edmunds.com/fuel-economy/what-happens-to-ev-and-hybrid-batteries.html

    http://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2011/tmv-appraise-results.html

    http://www.nrel.gov/vehiclesandfuels/vsa/pdfs/40485.pdf

    Mpg ratings, MSRP, & descriptions care of Edmunds.com

    Volt lifetime batter cost - http://nlpc.org/stories/2012/02/24/true-gas-savings-chevy-volt ;
    http://nlpc.org/stories/2012/09/20/government-stimulus-cant-overcome-100-years-ev-battery-shortcomings

    PHEVs miserable things to drive - http://nlpc.org/stories/2011/11/10/nissan-leaf-fails-real-life-test-miserably

    Leaf $1.4bn taxpayer subsidy - http://nlpc.org/stories/2012/04/06/taxpayers-14b-investment-nissan-ev-may-make-volt-look-good-comparison

    What is real cost of battery replacements? - http://green.autoblog.com/2011/08/03/need-to-replace-a-nissan-leaf-battery-hows-19-392-31-753-u/

    What is real cost of a Volt - http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2012/09/24/gm-offers-big-discounts-to-boost-volt-sales/

    What is real cost of a Leaf - ??
    Website providing CV to EV comparison, use real values -
    http://www.ccds.charlotte.nc.us/~jarrett/EV/cost.php
    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)  on  10/04  at  09:32 PM
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