The View From 1776

Statistical Subterfuge

President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank says the real unemployment rate is 16%, not the 9.4% rate put out by the Fed as Obama propaganda.

 

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 08/27 at 12:25 AM
  1. Yes, Tom, it is true that the unimployment data do not include those no longer looking for work. But that is how the data are taken, and this is true of the entire history of this statistic. The unemployment rate does not EVER include those folks - in Democratic or Republican administrations!

    So, how is this "propaganda," Tom?

    He, Atlanta Fed Pres. Lockhart, also said that the US economy was improving but "still fragile," and the beginning stages of a sluggish recovery were underway.

    So, let us give thanks to God that the Obama stimulus package is beginning to show some results and that we may escape the Bush depression, after all.

    s
    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)  on  08/30  at  11:36 PM
  2. Incomplete or innaccurate Unemployment Data are not the exception but the rule when it comes to government statistical reports. For many years the government and economists relied on M-1 (a measure of the money supply) without including the money market funds that actually held most liquid money. Inflation rate figures are so full of assumptions and estimates that they are misleading. Experts differ on whether the reported rate significantly overstates or understates the "true" rate. And they change the elaborate computation method so even the consistency of error is lost.

    The housing costs plugged in assume everyone rents at today's prices while most prudent people actually live in homes they bought years ago at much lower prices. School drop-out rates exclude the many who never attended. Dead beat dad figures include only those dads that were married to their children's mothers and excludes the larger number of fathers that never lived with the mothers of their offspring. And of course, there is a large and growing underground economy never reported at all--estimated at 10% or more in the USA and up to 30-50% in many other nations. Further, it would appear that almost all the household help employed by Cabinet officials are cash under the tables activity which somehow escapes government data collection procedures.

    An indication of innacuracies in reported data is the government's monthly publication of revisions to earlier reports. The media breathlessly reports each month's figures and financiers react. For example, if they report that inflation rose two tenths of a point in August there can be considerable economic consequences. However, the media rarely report that at the same time the government may have revised the rate they published two months before for June in an opposite (downward) direction by three tenths of a point!
    Posted by bill greene  on  09/02  at  08:11 AM
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