The View From 1776

Whither Russia?

Bob Stapler essays an overview of Russia’s evolving relations with the world.

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 02/29 at 06:33 PM
  1. Excellent Bob.
    We have to remember that due to "our example," democracy is out of favor in many places and may soon be out of favor here if we have the currency and economic collapse some are saying will happen either as a result of this current crisis or as a result of what we are doing to correct it. That correction of a problem caused by too much debt is more debt. As nutty as that sounds, it may actually be the only way to avoid a recession or depression at this time.

    However, if we do, we also maintain our energy consumption and the world's demand will continue to rapidly rise. In a few years if current trends continue, a recession or depression here will only slow growth globally. It depends on how fast the world's middle class consumer rises in numbers. I think OPEC, Russia and others are all viewing the growth in demand as a given at the same time getting oil from miles deep offshore fields slows how fast new production can replace rapidly declining fields in the North Sea, Mexico, Alaska, etc. Some even believe OPEC fields are maxed out and have over reported reserves to keep their country's production high (because of rationing of production quotas based on reported reserves for each member to keep them all in production for an equal time to be fair and avoid "competition" between memebers).

    Whatever the reasons, more and more oil producing nations are looking at rationing and some are even looking at "contracts" with set prices tied to an "inflation calculator" where for years the supply goes to the same customers instead of being sold on the open market. Both the customer and the producer then know exactly what they will have to budget for. They also want to limit production so that they make enough for needs of the economy but, don't run out for many decades. Those things are going to affect a large consumer like us more than others where we aren't used to high prices for energy and we waste a lot in our consumption habits with larger cars and homes and spending.

    I believe, and this is sad, that democracy is pretty much toast as a form of government. First, democracies always fail once people start voting themselves benefits. If you have a system like we did, a republic of competing democracies that acted like a check on democracy's frailties, the people found a way to destroy the checks. The elite used the Federal Reserve Act and the people used the ratification of the 16th and 17th Amendments to eliminate other checks.

    Russia, China, and others are using top down control as a check on democracy's ability to vote benefits. They "ration" benefits and do what is best for the health of the nation as a whole even if some individuals suffer from it.

    The other thing is U.S. foreign policy. Russia still harbors many hard feeling for U.S. uses of terrorists, rogue governments and funding and selling of weapons to people who attacked Russia economically and physically. Now, they see allying with Iran, China, and Venezuela as pay back. They also would like nothing better than a slow demise of the dollar, our economy and our power in the world and working very hard to do that slow enough they don't have a sudden collapse of the currency. Oil, being the basis of value for the dollar is a tactic I believe, you will see used more.
    Posted by JanPBurr  on  03/01  at  11:46 AM
  2. With their oil wealth, they are talking about selling some of their oil in rubles. In the last two years the ruble has risen 17% and if they start selling any oil in rubles, it will rise even faster, or rather the dollar will drop faster. Selling oil in dollars creates demand for dollars and any drops in demand for dollars means the value drop. We have seen that with the oil sales in euros and yen and bartering of Iraq, Iran and Venezuela. Now, pressures on the dollar are also coming from nations "depegging" from the dollar which appears like it will continue.

    Russia and China are spending on military not because they are going to start a war but because they believe we will start a war. It doesn't matter if they are wrong or not. They view the U.S. as a war nation with a war economy. It is that "war economy" they hope to bring us down with. Keep us spending on terrorism and wars and military while manufacturing leaves and financial services leave and R&D leaves, etc. Without firing a shot, they believe they can bring us down and oil wealth is an important weapon that they have many allies in. Even many nations, like Saudi Arabia that lowers interest rates when we do and keeps OPEC partially in line and pegs to the dollar is becoming more and more concerned about the U.S. dollar, inflation, and our economy. We made them wealthy beyond their dreams with Kissenger's 1971 deal. But, now the whole world is buying oil and our value to them and their wealth is becoming less as well as an inflation problem. They too, may soon decide Russia is a better ally than we are.

    Russia deals with both Saudi Arabia and Iran and Saudi Arabia may decide that as a "mediator" and "peace keeper" between Sunni and Shiite, Russia may be better than the U.S. if its power continues to rise.

    We have been covering some of this on the Tree of Liberty Forum There is so much going on with our economy, global shifts in power, energy, the North American Economic Community, tax revenues, etc. that it is amazing how interrelated so many things are. People are treating symptoms often, like trade, health care, tax revenues, etc. as problems, when the real problem, our system of government goes on unchecked creating one crisis after another.
    Posted by JanPBurr  on  03/01  at  11:49 AM
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