Historian Paul Johnson suggests that the United States needs to cement relations with India, a coming superpower and a key counterweight against Communist China and the Muslim world.
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The Forbes.com website carries a thought-provoking assessment of our foreign policy alignment for the future. Key quotations are below.
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Look to India
Paul Johnson, 09.05.05, 12:00 AM ET
If George W. Bush wishes to be remembered in future ages--and what high-spirited world leader doesn’t?--he will devote much of his second term to forging close and durable links with India.....
Regardless of who is in power, Europe is becoming a small player in the 21st century. The 25th International Population Conference, which met at Tours, France in July, made some significant points as to where power will be increasingly exercised in the new century.
By 2050 the EU’s 25 member nations will have a total population of only 461 million, compared with the U.S.’ 420 million. If you subtract Britain from the European total, the U.S. population will be significantly higher. The makeup of the European population will be older, with far fewer in the active workforce. It is more difficult to compute output per capita half a century hence, but if present trends continue, the GNP of the U.S. will be three times that of Europe.
In contrast, by 2050 India will have the largest population in the world--1.6 billion inhabitants versus China’s 1.4 billion, with India’s population being much younger. Although much of the Islamic world is growing fast in demographic terms--a matter of serious import for southern Europe in particular--India by midcentury most likely will have a greater number of souls than the entire Muslim world. As for India’s economic potential, I regard that as almost infinite over the long term....
India ought to also figure largely in President Bush’s calculations for another reason: It is a counterbalance on two important fronts. India will prove invaluable as a counterbalance to China if China becomes aggressive, especially toward Taiwan. China has weaknesses in central Asia--especially in Tibet, its much-oppressed and rebellious colony. Tibet, for many reasons, has closer affinities to India and is much closer geographically to Delhi than to Beijing.
India is also a counterbalance to the Muslim world. It is an example to its neighbors, Pakistan and Bangladesh. As India’s standard of living rises and India takes its place at the world’s head table, the inhabitants of these two neighboring countries are bound to ask, “What’s holding us back, while India prospers?” The answer will come, as it increasingly comes to Arab lands: Islamic fundamentalism.
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